Flow Observatory — 14-Metro Capital-Flow Read

Band 3 — National Regime

Wages (withheld)

+3.8% FYTD

+0.4% 90-day

Corporate tax

-17.8% FYTD

-18.6% 90-day

Customs / tariffs

$220.8B

FYTD (level)

Net liquidity

$5.61T

4wk +66B (expanding)

Regime call: Cooling / late-cycle — leading indicators (corporate tax, permits) down; lagging (wages) holding, liquidity a partial offset.

Cross-Metro — Fiscal (Band 2) · Built-World (Band 1)

Metro	Fed flow FY24→25	Top per-cap county (installation)	Permits / mo	MF %	Permits YTD YoY
atlanta	+12.7%	Fulton County $27,092/cap	2814	35%	+1.0%
austin	+14.7%	Tarrant County $39,081/cap	1549	8%	-29.1%
boise	+6.5%	Bonneville County $72,584/cap	866	18%	-8.7%
charlotte	+18.5%	Durham County $49,745/cap	1663	36%	-8.1%
dallas	+14.7%	Tarrant County $39,081/cap	5213	28%	-6.0%
denver	+10.5%	Douglas County $33,613/cap	1143	44%	+6.0%
las-vegas	+8.3%	Carson City $47,943/cap	606	1%	-54.8%
nashville	+13.4%	Anderson County $280,289/cap	1276	9%	-16.6%
phoenix	+13.5%	Pima County $49,693/cap	2255	16%	-22.3%
portland	+5.2%	Marion County $29,398/cap	805	42%	+2.1%
reno	+8.3%	Carson City $47,943/cap	160	29%	-8.2%
salt-lake	-4.6%	Weber County $42,251/cap	257	22%	-13.2%
seattle	+5.1%	Benton County $71,088/cap	2263	76%	+68.4%
tampa	+13.2%	Duval County $103,787/cap	2505	54%	-7.3%

Band 2 federal flow is state-level — same-state metros share it (TX: Austin=Dallas, NV: Reno=Las Vegas), so the differentiator is the Band 1 permit roll plus the county anomaly.

Auto-Flagged Joins

Flag = federal flow up (inertial) while permits roll ≥10% (leading). Ranked most-severe first. A join is a candidate signal, not trade advice.

J las-vegas — fed flow +8.3% vs permits -54.8% YTD + macro cooling → late-cycle divergence; relative-value candidate.
J austin — fed flow +14.7% vs permits -29.1% YTD + macro cooling → late-cycle divergence; relative-value candidate.
J phoenix — fed flow +13.5% vs permits -22.3% YTD + macro cooling → late-cycle divergence; relative-value candidate.
J nashville — fed flow +13.4% vs permits -16.6% YTD + macro cooling → late-cycle divergence; relative-value candidate.

Cohort: 10/14 metros show permits down YoY — broad new-construction rollover.

Sources: USAspending (Band 2 fiscal), Census BPS (Band 1 permits), Treasury DTS + NY Fed (Band 3 macro). Keyless open data. Generated 2026-07-19. Not investment advice.